Smart Protein Economic Analysis

Conducted by GFI India in partnership with Deloitte India, this analysis aims to understand what smart protein could mean for India’s economic future in terms of market size, export potential, job creation, and more.

Overview

The landscape of India’s smart protein sector has changed rapidly over the last few years — with new products going to market every few months, numerous startups, and several large FMCG players showing interest in the space. There are about 370+ SKUs across 41 formats and 73 smart protein brands across meat, eggs, and dairy available in retail and e-commerce channels, with an ecosystem of 100+ companies across the value chain supporting the growth of these ventures.

With increased awareness, investments in supply chain localisation, R&D, and talent development, the category is rapidly moving beyond the early adopter target segment of consumers to the early majority segment. Globally, the plant-based meat industry was estimated to be valued at USD 5.6 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach at least USD 88 billion by 2030. In the absence of any estimates for India, The Good Food Institute India partnered with Deloitte India to conduct a rigorous market study and modelling to investigate the potential of smart protein for India’s economic future in terms of market size, export potential, economic impact, job creation, and more.

The analysis included plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy, along with fermentation-derived and cultivated meat. For each of these sectors and at a cumulative level, potential domestic market size, export market potential, direct and indirect impact on the economy, and the potential number of jobs that can be created by 2030 were calculated. The modelling was conducted under three scenarios—low, medium, and high growth, considering varying degrees of market development by 2030 across category awareness, the adoption rate of smart proteins, supply chain localisation, and investments in R&D leading to taste and price parity, talent, and skill development for the specialised new-age jobs in the smart protein industry.

Key insights from the report

Domestic market size

• The consolidated domestic market size for smart protein in 2030 ranges from INR 7,475 crore (USD 946 million) to INR 18,963 crore (USD 2.4 billion)
  • The domestic market size for plant-based meat in 2030 ranges from INR 1,803 crore (USD 228 million) to INR 5,884 crore (USD 745 million)
  • The domestic market size for meat produced via biomass/precision fermentation in 2030 ranges from INR 318 crore (USD 40 million) to INR 1,038 crore (USD 131 million)
  • Considering the stage at which cultivated meat is, there might not be domestic consumption by 2020
  • The domestic market size for plant-based eggs in 2030 ranges from INR 527 crore (USD 67 million) to INR 1,416 crore (USD 179 million)
  • The domestic market size for plant-based dairy in 2030 ranges from INR 4,827 crore (USD 611 million) to INR 10,625 crore (USD 1.3 billion)

Export potential

• The consolidated export potential for smart protein in 2030 ranges from INR 4,582 crore (USD 480 million) to INR 14,321 crore (USD 1.4 billion)
  • The export potential for plant-based meat in 2030 ranges from INR 2,194 crore (USD 278 million) to INR 6,824 crore (USD 864 million)
  • The export potential for meat produced via biomass/ precision fermentation in 2030 ranges from INR 351 crore (USD 44 million) to INR 819 crore (USD 103 million)
  • The export potential for cultivated meat in 2030 ranges from INR 1,312 crore (USD 164 million) to INR 4,152 crore (USD 520 million)
  •  The export potential for plant-based eggs in 2030 ranges from INR 266 crore (USD 34 million) to INR 631 crore (USD 80 million)
  • The export potential for plant-based dairy in 2030 ranges from INR 459 crore (USD 58 million) to INR 1,889 crore (USD 239 million)
• The total economic impact of all smart protein categories in 2030 ranges from INR 6,435 crore (USD 781 million) to INR 18,909 crore (USD 2.3 billion)
• The total number of jobs created by the smart protein industry in 2030 ranges from 151,025 jobs to 427,985 jobs 

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